System Reliability Modeling
My master’s thesis project, supported by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), entailed constructing a Monte Carlo simulation model for the reliability analysis of dam operations on the Missouri River. This initiative yielded novel insights into the role of systems engineering practices in dam operations, consequently enhancing the modeling techniques employed in dam safety studies.
Conference paper
Zihui Ma, Robert C. Patev, Lingyao Li, Gregory B. Baecher. “Missouri River System Simulation”, US Society on Dams Annual Conference, San Diego, April 11-14.
The series of six major dams on the Missouri River—from Fort Peck to GavinsPoint—is among the most ambitious water resource projects ever undertaken.The objective of this study was to develop an understanding of the systems engineering behavior of the series and the influence of operational controls on its performance by means of simulation. The focus is the management of the system to maximize hydroelectric generation while providing flood risk management, navigation support, and other multiple-use activities. Dam safety, while important, is not a concern of the present study. The Missouri basin drains 529,350 mi2 encompassing parts of 10 US states and two Canadian provinces. Authorized by the Flood Control Act of 1944, it is the largest reservoir system in North America. The system is influenced by a wide range of climate conditions and land-use practices. This simulation approach brings together river basin hydrology, the routing of reservoir inflows, operating rules, and human factors. The goal is to understand how the interactions among these system components, communications, and control combine to affect performance. The system simulation has been performed using historical data and other aspects of the dam series.